Monday, December 21, 2015

Changing equations in Syria - ISIS , the West & Russia

The lead that Putin has taken has changed the equations in the war against ISIS fundamentally.The US hegemony has taken a beating with Putin sending Russian aircraft and ground troops.

Putin has forced Obama's popularity back home to take a beating with his "don't give a damn about the West approach".This has also forced Assad to be viewed through a totally different prism.Pushing out Assad was the US plan.This will not be an easy option anymore.

Obama is under increasing pressure daily with the Republican rants increasing by the day for sending in ground troops.This will not be as easy as Donald Trump makes it sounds to be.ISIS was a direct consequence of the political vacuum left after toppling of Saddam.The West ,no matter how much it tries to suppress this dimension cannot hide from reality.

The equipment that ISIS uses is the hardware of the Iraqi army.The source of their money is oil smuggled outside in black market.

The debate continues to torment the West primarily with questions from 3 areas:

1)How do you stop ISIS from recruiting people from around the world?Would you call radical Islam a problem?
2)Does the West have to send in ground troops to deny ISIS geographical territory?Can the West afford to get into another long haul battle?
3)How should Assad be handled?

While all this plays out,the Arab states has stood as silent watchers.Saudi Arabia has been accused of funding money to ISIS .Qatar,UAE,Kuwait and other nations from OPEC have not taken in even a single Syrian refugee.The West's double games are not helping in this case.

The biggest threat to this spaghetti situation is for the West to remain mute to the diabolical policies of Saudi Arabia and other OPEC countries.

The next president of the United States would have a lot of tough calls to make.In an ideal world ,the United states would look to multiply its domestic oil production and calling the bluff of countries like Saudi Arabia.Obama does not have the intent nor the resolve to shift US foreign policy in this direction which would require a lot of guts.

India,China and the sub continent has primarily remained a watcher to this whole series of affairs.Pressure would mount on Narendra Modi and Xi JinPing is the ISIS manages to stage an attack in the subcontinent or South East Asian region.

The tailspin into a bottomless pit would continue till the West calls a bluff on the duplicity of the OPEC nations.Unfortunately , there does not seem to be light at the end of the tunnel any time soon









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