Thursday, April 20, 2017

The US foreign policy conundrum


The North Korean conundrum & the current US foreign policy offers important lessons in management. One one side ,we have a dictator hell bent on keeping testing missiles subduing the population ignorant of the world.On the other side is a business tycoon turned politician finding the going tough in passing out legislation in politics.North Korea should not be under estimated on the level of damage that it can unleash.The United States on the other hand is involved in too many wars,too many places around the world -Afghanistan,Ukraine,Japan,South Korea,Syria,Iraq,Yemen to name the obvious.With Trump realizing that legislation is a different ball game compared to running a business,the temptation to war monger with the aim of diverting attention from domestic pressures is extremely alluring and Trump seems to have fallen prey.Throughout the campaign,Trump campaigned on the promise of withdrawing the United States from never ending wars with the goal on rebuilding the economy.Many analysts around that world believed in this Trump vision and was convinced that he had the wherewithal to go against the established norms of US foreign policy,the key being remaining closely interlocked with NATO & retaining Russia as the eternal enemy .However ground realities has shifted drastically in the last decade.China and not Russia has emerged as the biggest threat to US both in terms of trade and military prowess.The world has moved on,however the Atlanticist lobby of the US lefttist media would push and haunt anyone who comes in with a different world view.Trump's administration is filled with resources subscribing to the stale Atlanticist view.HR Mcmaster & Nikki Haley are charismatic individuals but they are still stuck in time on their world views.Democrats and CNN erupted in joy at the sight of the Tomahawk missiles flying into the airbase in Syria.Fareed Zakaria went to the extent of calling Donald Trump "Presidential". But what they fail to tell the American people is that there was not a shred of evidence presented to the American public that Bashar Al Assad had orchestrated the attack.After all,there is not a single logical reason on why Assad would orchestrate a chemical attack considering the fact that Rex Tillerson went on record to say that regime change in Syria was not a priority for the administration.This is not to defend Assad,but the trust the world and the American public has on the security apparatus has reached a dead low.After all,the same security agencies had convinced the world that Saddam had indeed possessed WMD.Tulsi Gabbard has emerged as among the lone sane voice on the political arena,calling for the US to stop supporting terrorist groups around the world and to have attacked Syria only after allowing Congress to view ,debate and pass approval to attack.Let's not forget that its unconstitutional to impose war on a nation without Congressional approval.The Constitution however allows the President some leverage which Bush and now Trump has used to attack other nations citing the threat to national security.Gabbard was attacked viciously and made out to be a villain by Jake Tapper &co on CNN.Following the attack on Syria,Trump dropped the Mother of All bombs on Afghanistan.These are decisions of National security and as civilians we can only trust that the authorities in charge are doing the best they can for the nation.

The fact is that there is no debate happening in the US on various dimensions of going to war.CNN and Fox carry on with their agendas.True journalism is supposed to shed light on both sides of the argument and at the moment Trump like every other US President has decided to continue to war monger without facing any challenging questions or even having to bother to explain the consequences of the actions.Is the plan of US to remain in perpetual warfare?It's been 15 years in Afghanistan and there is no end in sight.The Western fantasy of replacing a dictator who is opposed to the US ,in the garb of installing democracy has spelled disaster in Iraq,Libya and now threatens Syria.Kim Jong Ung would surely not make the mistake of going in for a peace deal having seen the fate of Qaddafi and Saddam.The Korean peninsula could turn out to be yet another misadventure of US foreign policy if not handled with tact.China could turn out to the dark horse as North Korea's primary trade is with that country.However Trump would be naive to think that China is going to help the US beyond a point.China wouldn't want North Korea to fail as that would mean hundreds of thousands of refugees on its border.At the same time,it would like to keep the US off balance by keeping the North Korea plate in perpetual boil just like how it uses Pakistan to keep India off balance.After all the anti China rant during the campaign ,Trump has sucked up to Xi Jin Ping.Chinese seem to have reversed the art of deal on Trump for now.

With the 180 that Trump has carried out in foreign policy,a coterie of his support base has deserted him.Trump claims that being flexible and unpredictable is a key weapon in his arsenal.However,flexibility without consistency can be a disaster.The days ahead promise a lot of action.


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