America in the 21st century

Economists,foreign policy watchers and politicians are hotly debating the question - "Is the US on the decline" ?

This question will not be a straight forward yes or now.Detailed analysis on various aspects of national life would be required.

1)Healthcare:

The US healthcare system is exorbitant and costs continue to spiral.The Affordable Care Act brought on by the Obama administration was a step in the right direction hoping to make Healthcare affordable and mandatory.The results however doesn't look bright.Obamacare has succeeded in enrolling more Americans for healthcare through the exchange program.Heavy fines are imposed under this program if a family remains uninsured during the calendar year.

However,on the downside,it has resulted in big players like Anthem&Cigna joining hands and capturing larger market shares to keep their profits in check.

US lags way behind countries like Germany,Denmark and Sweden where healthcare is much cheaper and services more efficient.

It has become impossible for any senator to challenge the drug companies from the costs constantly as their fundings would take an immediate hit.However in the above countries,drug companies are under the ambit of the government and are forced to keep the prices of drugs within a range.


2)Education:

US primary education standards are on the downhill as per many studies.However,US continues to excel in its post graduate and research programs.US is still able to attract the best brains from around the world and they continue to make it their home.

However,the future immigration policies of subsequent governments would have a strong say on if this trend would continue onto the 21st century.


3)Foreign policy:

The US has come under heavy criticism from around the world after the twin blunders of Iraq and Afghanisthan.Its a fact that US hegemony will be on the decline as we move into the 21st century.Putin moving Russian forces into Syria in support of Assad is a clear sign that the cracks of US foreign policy are starting to backfire.


BRICS ( Brazil ,Russia,India,China , South-Africa) & Israel would take stronger roles in fighting terror in the coming decades and would continually challenge US foreign policies.We are already seeing evidences of this with China investing massively in Africa and building islands in South China sea against US interests.

However US continues to have the largest military budget & military bases by far comparing to any other country.


4)US Debt :

The US debt would spiral into trillions with the baby boomers set to retire in the next 5-10 years.Social security and medicare bills are a ticking time bomb on the treasury.

Given the fact that majority of the US debt is held by China,the next President would have a tightrope diplomacy to maintain.He or she will not be in a position to act indiscriminately against China.

Any massive selling of US debt would lead to a crash in the dollar which could trigger a further recession.


5)Family & Savings :

The American mindset would have to learn to respect these two crucial 6 letter words if they are to prosper in the 21st century.

a) Family : 

Countries like India where the families are closely knit are closed from external shocks in economies primarily because families step in when members are in an economic crisis and hence there is a lesser dependency on the government.Medical insurance and health care is extraordinarily cheap and hence children take charge of the parent's medical bills once they enter into old age.Hence the government is freed up of social security and medicare bills.This behavior has been culturally embedded into their DNA whereas in the US , "independence" is an overly rated virtue.


b)Saving :

Families in India run on the debit transactions unlike US where everything runs on credit.Hence,children are continually encouraged to save from childhood.Banks do not lend home loans unless you shell in 20% of the down payment.Hence India did quite well even as the housing market in the US crashed.


6)Immigration:

The US immigration story has been a great success over the decades.However the Republican calls to cut down on H1B visa's to 20 000 doesn't look promising.H1B visa's are issued to highly skilled workers like IT professionals,doctors and engineers.

The Republican fear mongering is against the stand of stalwarts like Bill Gates who have called on the US government to issue infinite H1B visas as these workers are highly skilled and are more often than not would end up starting ventures in the US in the long run and create more jobs.

The US would continue to flourish as long as it continues to bring in the best brains & minds.
Accepting Syrian refugees is a different debate altogether and the 2 issues are often mixed up by the right wingers while debating.

The world needs America to keep doing well into the 21st century and let's hope the legislators make all the right choices in the days ahead.


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A take on the global economy and political scenario - 2016

The housing market has been on upswing over the last year.US real estate prices are back to the 2008 days.Seller's who bought their property at the peak of the bubble around 2004-2006 period had to wait a decade to back their equity.

The question is whether the rise of the US economy this time is for real.Critics like Jim Rickards have criticized the Fed heavily and strongly believes that another stronger,longer recession is around the corner. Rickards points out that the FED has been indiscriminately pumping in cash to keep the inevitable from happening.Another possibility that he points out is that the next global recession could be triggered with the collapse of the Chinese economy and not from home grown market forces.The Chinese -US economic tango is well documented.China holds majority of the US stock to keep the yuan low and hence keep its position of a manufacturing hub intact.If a scenario occurs where the Chinese does a massive sell of the US foreign debt, the markets could tailspin into panic mode and would prove to be a domino effect too strong to withhold.

In between,buying in the US market has gone on an upswing with the employment rate looking good.Critics like Rickards again point out that the jobs that are created are part time jobs not full time stable jobs.

People prefer to buy rather than rent.Most people in US would be happy to see their house prices appreciate close to 1 to 3 %.Gone are the crazy expectations of massive increase in real estate value after the hard lessons of the recession.Statistics of properties sold show that the high sales are in the range of 350 000 $ to 450 000 $ in a place like Minneapolis which could be considered a upper middle class range.This again does points out that the real definition of middle class in US needs to be clearly defined.Families earning 200 000 $ per annum consider themselves middle class in US.Considering that the average family income of a US family is 56 000 $ , this does not make sense.

The rise of Bernie Sanders in the upcoming elections is a clear indicator that the middle class is increasingly feeling isolated from mainstream.Democratic socialism is making waves in US.With most of the democracies going right wing across the world,it would be interesting to see how Right wing conservatism from the likes of Donald Trump would come out in the election.

Accepting Syrian refugees &  Islamic terrorism is again a hot area of debate on the election trail.The Democrats have been continually refusing to use the work "Islamic terror" and argue that forming a coalition and air strikes are the way forward.The Republicans on the other hand have been blowing the fear trumpet.Tedd Cruz and Trump have come heavily on Obama for the Iran deal and for not sending in ground troops.However Cruz and Trump have not explained on how they plan to finance another US ground troop invasion.

Europe is struggling with the biggest exodus of immigrants after the World War.Recent incidents of sexual assaults on women by refugees in Cologne on New Years' eve has led to the popularity ratings of Angela Merkel falling.David Cameron has called for more purposeful expression of liberal values.With the Euro in a crisis,it would be interesting to see if Britain chooses to remain with the EU or drop out of it in the days to come.France has joined the US led airstrikes after the attack in Paris.

Putin has snatched the initiative from the West with Syria.He has made it clear that keeping Assad in power is the best option at the point.Putin has realized that the US hegemony after the double blunders of Iraq and Afghanisthan is on the decline.

Meanwhile in India,Modi government is trying to push through key reforms like GST with a disruptive opposition like Congress playing spoiltsport.It would be critical for a Modi let BJP government to assume power again in 2019 if the key initiatives like Make In India,Digital India and financial inclusion of the poor are to take place.

2016 would be a key year to watch.


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Changing equations in Syria - ISIS , the West & Russia

The lead that Putin has taken has changed the equations in the war against ISIS fundamentally.The US hegemony has taken a beating with Putin sending Russian aircraft and ground troops.

Putin has forced Obama's popularity back home to take a beating with his "don't give a damn about the West approach".This has also forced Assad to be viewed through a totally different prism.Pushing out Assad was the US plan.This will not be an easy option anymore.

Obama is under increasing pressure daily with the Republican rants increasing by the day for sending in ground troops.This will not be as easy as Donald Trump makes it sounds to be.ISIS was a direct consequence of the political vacuum left after toppling of Saddam.The West ,no matter how much it tries to suppress this dimension cannot hide from reality.

The equipment that ISIS uses is the hardware of the Iraqi army.The source of their money is oil smuggled outside in black market.

The debate continues to torment the West primarily with questions from 3 areas:

1)How do you stop ISIS from recruiting people from around the world?Would you call radical Islam a problem?
2)Does the West have to send in ground troops to deny ISIS geographical territory?Can the West afford to get into another long haul battle?
3)How should Assad be handled?

While all this plays out,the Arab states has stood as silent watchers.Saudi Arabia has been accused of funding money to ISIS .Qatar,UAE,Kuwait and other nations from OPEC have not taken in even a single Syrian refugee.The West's double games are not helping in this case.

The biggest threat to this spaghetti situation is for the West to remain mute to the diabolical policies of Saudi Arabia and other OPEC countries.

The next president of the United States would have a lot of tough calls to make.In an ideal world ,the United states would look to multiply its domestic oil production and calling the bluff of countries like Saudi Arabia.Obama does not have the intent nor the resolve to shift US foreign policy in this direction which would require a lot of guts.

India,China and the sub continent has primarily remained a watcher to this whole series of affairs.Pressure would mount on Narendra Modi and Xi JinPing is the ISIS manages to stage an attack in the subcontinent or South East Asian region.

The tailspin into a bottomless pit would continue till the West calls a bluff on the duplicity of the OPEC nations.Unfortunately , there does not seem to be light at the end of the tunnel any time soon


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Indian women & BBC

There has been a ruckus over the shooting of a film by Leslee Udwin  titled 'India's daughter' for BBC.The film was sponsored by a British NGO by name PLAN UK.The government and the social activists have taken opposing views on this issue.Before ,we get down to who is right on the , issue,lets accept & look at the facts in the eye .

There is a huge problem of women's rights,sexual exploitation, safety,opportunities in politics ,business & other domains for women in India.The Delhi rape was one of the most gruesome acts of violence in recent memory.Women are not given their due in society & the modern Indian society has a long way to go before it can truly aspire to be a super power.It's simple logic that families & countries prosper where women are cared & loved for.Its a shameful fall from the ancient spiritual richness of India where the 3 main sources of power were all assigned to women. Durga ( weapons ) , Saraswati (Knowledge) & Lakshmi (Wealth ).The nation India itself is symbolized in the form of a mother.The woman is the source from which life starts & this fact was cherished in our culture from times immemorial.However ,there is hope at the end of the tunnel where we saw the whole of India taking notice of the Delhi rape and coming out in protest.So,we Indians do realize that there is a problem and are aware of the seriousness of the situation.

Many politicians are criticizing the documentary even without watching it.Leslee Udwin herself is a victim of rape and has stayed away 2 years from her family to make this film.She should be applauded for her sincerity towards making this touching documentary.

Now,lets explore some other dimensions to this issue :

Why is BBC so interested in broadcasting this documentary in UK and around the globe?What was the motivation of the production team of the documentary in doing the psycho analysis of  a rapist in India when the volume of rape in UK and other Western countries stands at a much higher % considering the population?

The film is indeed moving and every man should watch it.Every man should feel for Nirbhaya's family and not dare to look at a woman in a disrespectful way.

Why did BBC choose to ignore the serious volume of rape in UK & choose to broadcast the documentary? Just pull up statistics on google for the highest volume of sexual harassment against women and surprisingly ,we find that the percentages are highest in countries where Western civilization is cherished..

Plan UK ,which is the NGO that sponsored #IndiasDaughter is founded by Eric Muggeridge who is related to Malcolm Muggridge who inturn was instrumental in building the cult media status of Mother Teresa .Now ,we are able to see the dots.Aren't we?We saw the huge hue and cry in the media recently when Mohan Bhagwat made a frank analysis on Mother Teresa ,saying that her work was good ,but the real intention was conversion.

The shooting of this documentary should not be seen in isolation.In this globalized world where countries like India & China are challenging the West on the economic,social & political domains, NOTHING REMAINS AS ISOLATED EVENTS.In a time when India's economy is back on the growth pedestal ,these events are designed to show India in bad light.Of course ,there are gender issues and violence in India which needs to be addressed & this has to be and will be addressed by Indians.We do not need BBC to do our psycho analysis and name the show as "INDIA'S DAUGHTER ".BBC should learn that British left India long back and colonization doesn't work anymore.

I myself was an ignoramus on these issues till a decade back when I started seeing the patterns in events.Authors like Rajiv Malhotra are doing pioneering work on showing the grand nexus among the Western civilization who are hell bent on breaking India & her rich civilization.The modern war is not fought on the frontiers but on the intellectual and economic fields.

Is the Govt right in putting an official ban on the documentary ?

The UPA government which was known for playing host to all anti nationals like Zakir Naik ,Benny Hinn had given permission for the production of the film under certain conditions.The permission granted to BBC was to shoot the documentary as a case study for psychology and not for commercial purposes.

And what does the BBC do? Put it on youtube and title it as "INDIA'S DAUGHTER " for cheap TRP grossly violating the terms of agreement.

Even though,banning a video is not a solution in this day and age, the intent of the government in sending out a notice to BBC and banning the video from youtube sends out a strong message to other film makers from around the world, who have no love for India and whose sole aim is to show India in bad light, to not take the legal system in India for a ride.No one is asking to not make films on issues in India,but don't take the legal system for a ride and hope to get away.

What should be the government's plan of action going forward to handle such scenarios?

Learn from China. Look at how China builds up her grand narrative giving a damn about Western observations about China.Reports show that the Chinese film industry has outgrown Hollywood both in terms of scale and facilities.Every time the US publishes a report on human rights violations in China,you find a strong Chinese reaction in a matter of days with a counter report on human rights violation in the West.

India should take the same path.We should set up dedicated centers of study on ideas and human rights issues in the West.Indian filmmakers should travel to the West and make films on depression ,rape & marital issues in the West & show it in international forums.

In this day and age ,only strength respects strength.India is a continuing civilization of over a billion people and we don't need a British NGO to teach us what we should and shouldn't be doing.Most importantly,we should start treating our women well ,so that there are no more problems for film makers to explore and strict actions should be taken against such offenders of crime against women.

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Independence --- a quality which is overvalued in the West ?

We hear in the West , that being independent is the best quality that there should be.Kids move out of their home when they turn 16 and start working part time ,buy their own car and decide on every small detail of their life.Children are told to assert their independence even from young days at school.Parents are sued and put in prison if they scold the kids.

Independence does have its ups.It no doubt makes you self reliant and stops you being a nagger in life.However on the flip side, it makes you ruthlessly selfish and make up a mind of "My way or the highway".This ruthless pursuing of self interest is evident from small things in life to how countries like US pursue their foreign policy.Actors in Hollywood do not sign films on relationships,but through contractual agreements.The concept of true friendship based truly on trust is rarely visible.Below the hype and hoopla of laughter and glamour,we find celebrities who are insecure and depressed.The recent passing away of legendary actor Robin Williams reminds us of the same

As human beings,we all need a support system of family and friends to navigate us through life.Western thought forces you to retain your independence.A feed back system of friends and family would prevent cases of depression which is so high in the West.

With the world being globalized ,countries like India where a joint family system was prevalent till recently would do itself well if it doesn't fall into the traps& mistakes which the Western line of thought has made.

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Calculated Risk taking - the one quality we all need to learn !

From my experience on Planet earth in around 30 odd years , I realize that taking calculated risks is one quality that will help you grow more than anything.

Majority of us have standard IQ's .Some of us might have a IQ more than 100.Most of us have graduated and are well read.With the advent of internet, we all have access to the same information.

Most of us get into a pattern of thinking of living a comfortable life with a good bank deposit and then when we hit the mid 40's ,the mid life crisis hits us hard.Then we realize that yes we did travel abroad,we did make a good bank deposit, we are sending our kids to the best schools available but at the end of the day , there's a hollow in our hearts.

To avoid that dooms day ,we all need to find our inner voice & take calculated risks and move out of our comfort zones.The worst that might happen is that we fail and break our backs.But we would be richer from our experience of going through it and emerge a stronger and wiser person.

Society forces us to live within its established standards which we should break through garnering courage which is already within us.Courage is not being fearless all the time.Fear would be there ,but to transcend it in spite of the presence of it is risk taking.Taking risks ,sharpens our intelligence ,makes us more reliable and confident.It makes life worth living.Take risks ....and live courageously !!

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AIB - All India Backhod - Are Indians too easily offended ?

I happened to see a you tube video where Karan Johar along with Ranvir Singh ,Arjun Kapoor & the All India Bakchod Team takes on everything from religion to character assassination using lewdity to religious jokes.

I did find the concept immature.However ,nothing in the show made me feel offended or create a streak of violence within me.

As expected,the show created anger among the Shiv Sena & religious leaders from the Church.Lets explore the question on whether the Indian society and religious leaders are too easily offended ?

The ideal society is one where anything and everything can be ridiculed , laughed at ,mocked at ,dissected and still people can happily live with each other in peace.But I guess ,this would be an Utopian ideal.If we look at India's rich cultural past , the Natya Shastra clearly says that whatever is said & performed on the stage would not be used against the artists.

When artists were provided such freedom , we find that science ,arts,music & religion flourished.India is after all the land of the Kama-Sutra,Natya Shastra,Vedas,the Ayurveda,Yoga ,Mathematics ,Astronomy & a host of other sciences.

When most of India moved to Buddism at a point in History , Adi Shakararchary re-established Hinduism not through forceful conversion or through the power of the sword,but through the power of debate.India has one of the oldest churches & the mosques in the world.Indian culture was all absorbing.

Ridicule & debate was and should continue to be part of Indian society to retain its true essence.The fringe elements should be debarred from society.

Religious leaders are getting offended at the drop of a hat.After all this is a culture which always said that all paths lead to God and to retain that essence, the AIB should be allowed to continue their shows.

AIB should not have apologized to the Archdiocese of Bombay nor should they apologize to any Hindu or Islamic fringe groups.The Archdiocese should instead go onto youtube ,take a deep breath and view the number of videos where the Westerners make fun of religion and then laugh at this mystery called life.

Indian culture is so fundamentally strong that it has the power to absorb the good from AIB and discard the crap.Believe in that and move on Indians and stop getting offended for no reason.

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